Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.883761 3.465249 4.115823 4.894967 5.799902 6.814902 8.036485
2025-04-20 2.101394 2.894144 3.886893 5.208281 6.906079 8.997925 11.751744
2025-04-27 1.559808 2.421601 3.610985 5.340698 7.753901 10.957643 15.479468
2025-05-04 1.226569 2.115739 3.450562 5.542553 8.666464 13.071687 19.642759
2025-05-11 0.949012 1.807038 3.199232 5.533978 9.237151 14.741327 23.350976
2025-05-18 0.715917 1.501496 2.875259 5.331263 9.450958 15.875609 26.364485
2025-05-25 0.535190 1.234923 2.551133 5.052567 9.474983 16.685501 28.927441
2025-06-01 0.426592 1.074607 2.376769 4.989902 9.827687 18.024950 32.416431
2025-06-08 0.342460 0.939964 2.219617 4.923724 10.150610 19.328194 35.943163
2025-06-15 0.305654 0.901157 2.245214 5.207046 11.133570 21.837862 41.690867
2025-06-22 0.255644 0.815182 2.151871 5.232457 11.626013 23.520557 46.142207
2025-06-29 0.212519 0.733247 2.049367 5.218614 12.033038 25.075437 50.480514
2025-07-06 0.174624 0.655035 1.943047 5.188348 12.422849 26.672341 55.103293
2025-07-13 0.163294 0.652930 2.025442 5.602452 13.791774 30.264461 63.710573
2025-07-20 0.142745 0.614568 2.006272 5.774648 14.663861 32.967700 70.858004
2025-07-27 0.127059 0.586911 2.009853 6.002200 15.682603 36.046681 78.950227
2025-08-03 0.106404 0.532992 1.926884 5.997102 16.173536 38.093444 85.176905
2025-08-10 0.083965 0.461609 1.773994 5.781032 16.144716 39.054391 89.312177
2025-08-17 0.064287 0.390949 1.603226 5.482328 15.874758 39.470302 92.362319
2025-08-24 0.052796 0.350675 1.520374 5.415200 16.162961 41.114748 98.055912
2025-08-31 0.043289 0.314494 1.441373 5.344180 16.430403 42.731229 103.797695
2025-09-07 0.040370 0.311786 1.483288 5.648457 17.708744 46.730656 114.882197
2025-09-14 0.034362 0.288020 1.439337 5.675745 18.251555 49.076246 122.524305